Monthly Market Summary November 2024
From the global economic landscape, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 bps in November 2024 with the Fed Rate to 4.75%, in line with market expectations. From the US economy, several agendas planned by Donald Trump are being highlighted due to their impact on the global economic landscape. Inflation in November 2024 grew at the slowest rate in the last three years at 1.55% YoY. The Current Account Deficit improved to USD2.2 billion (0.6% of GDP) in Q3 2024.
In November 2024, the bond market tends to be bearish in line with the strengthening of the dollar index by 1.66% MoM and reaching 105.74. The price of Indonesian government bonds in Rupiah denominations moved down with the 10-year bond yield increasing by 9 bps to 6.91%, while the price of Indonesian government bonds in USD denominated tended to be flat with the 10-year bond yield increasing slightly by 5 bps to 5.06%.
For the Indonesian stock market, the JCI and MSCI Indonesia fell (-6.1%) and (-7.2%) respectively in November 2024. Although the global economic landscape looks challenging, the current JCI valuation is attractive with a spread of 160bps above the 10-year bond yield, higher than the 3-year historical average of 71 bps.
